Ilwaco @ Castle Rock, 7 pm, Friday, Oct. 21, Castle Rock
If the Ilwaco Fishermen (2-3, 3-4) are going to qualify for the district crossover games in two weeks, they will need to win their last two games of the regular season. The first opponent in their way is the team they are tied with for fifth place in the Trico, Castle Rock (2-3, 3-4).
These two teams have put up fairly similar numbers this year. Castle Rock's defense gives up an average of 17 ppg, while the Fishermen average 26 ppg — though in their three wins they are averaging 32 ppg on offense while giving up 4.6 ppg. On offense, the Rockets average 17.7 ppg, while the Fishermen average 16 ppg. The Fishermen have scored exactly that, total, in their four losses this year. What about common opponents?
Kalama — Castle Rock lost 34-27, Fishermen lost 41-0
Stevenson — Castle Rock won 27-12, Ilwaco won 30-0
Columbia — Rockets won 26-6 , Ilwaco won 39-14
LaCenter — Castle Rock lost 12-7, Fishermen lost 50-8
In those four games Castle Rock averaged 21.7 ppg, while allowing 16 ppg. Ilwaco averaged 19 ppg, while allowing 26 ppg.
The Fishermen really have their season in their hands, and really the best chance of making the crossover games — the top four teams from the Trico play the top four teams from the Evergreen with trips to the state tournament on the line. If Ilwaco were to win Friday they would have a potential tie-breaker with Castle Rock sewed up. The team currently in the number four slot in the Trico, Ridgefield, faces an incredibly tough Toledo team this Friday. An Ilwaco win and Ridgefield loss would have both teams at 3-3 in the Trico, and tied for fourth place. The Fishermen and Spudders are scheduled to play each other in the final game of the regular season, with a win-and-you're-in situation on the line.
But enough of the crystal ball talk. The Fishermen's biggest hurdle may be themselves, after having 10 different players either not play last week because of injury or surgery, and a couple more getting hurt during the game — Zach Ahlin is out for the rest of the season with a fractured femur.
Josh Berteaux continues his great senior year, running for another 109 yards — only problem was the Fishermen only had a total of 138 yards for the game. It's also hard to say if the Matt Wood at QB experiment really works or not, as he has only thrown the ball twice since taking on the roll. The Rockets are mainly a defensive team, without a lot of flash on offense. Last week in their 11-3 loss to Ridgefield, the Rockets only managed 161 yards of offense, but held the Spudders to only 150. If the Fishermen can hold onto the ball it's possible that the big boot of Edgar Galvan could kick their way to a win.
Don't forget to check back Saturday for a game recap and photo gallery
Naselle @ North Beach, 7 pm, Friday, Oct. 21, Ocean Shores
Though in all reasonable respects the Naselle Comets (4-0, 7-0) won the Pacific League three weeks ago when they destroyed the Valley Vikings, this week they can make it official with a win at North Beach (3-1, 3-4).
The Hyaks may be in third place in the league, but a look at how they got there tells a different story.
• North Beach have given up 162 points, while only scoring 126.
• They have lost all three non-conference games, including last week to a particularly poor Mossyrock team, 27-8.
• They beat a terrible Ocosta team 6-0, and a downfallen South Bend team 26-20. Their signature win, if you want to call it that, came against NW Christian, 52-12, while their signature loss came at the hands of the Valley Vikings, 30-16.
• The Hyaks end their season against two of the highest scoring teams in the state - Naselle (1st) and at Raymond (3rd).
Here's a few stats on the Comets
• They are one of only three undefeated teams left in the state at the 2B level. However they have superior points scored and given up differential stats over the other two teams.
• The Comets have scored 337 points in seven games for a 48 ppg average, and have scored at least 42 in every game this year. The next closest in PPG scored is Waitsburg/Prescott with 273.
• Naselle is only 63 points away from breaking 400 total for the year.
• Since giving up 20 points to Raymond back in week three, the Comets have given up only 21 points their last four games, an average of 5.25 ppg.
Last week, the Comets went against common theory and took it easy on a team by throwing the ball on almost every play. The few times they did run they scored. And Dustin Eaton threw well enough (9-21 for 174) to rack up three more scores. Don't be too surprised if the Comets put the ball in the air some more this week. They have quite possibly the most potent running game out there, but if they can get even more efficient passing, they will give teams in the playoffs some real problems.
The defense was stellar once again, and nearly had their third straight shutout (does a fourth quarter score given up by the JV really count?). In fact, when the varsity D left the field in the third quarter NWC actually had negative total yards of offense. A 68-yard JV run gave the Navs a total of 63 yards for the game. I know NWC is bad, but come on, negative total yards? That's impressive against anyone. The defense has continued to get better each week, even without Ryley Queener last game. Queener is back home and returned to practice as of Tuesday.
Looking ahead, if projections play out as they should, Naselle will host Central league fifth place team Wahkiakum in a district crossover game on Nov. 4. A win in that game would give Naselle the top seed in the western side of the 2B state playoff bracket. Speaking of which, said bracket has been released and the top seed from District IV will play the number five from that district. In this case, that is most likely going to be either Adna or Valley (or maybe even Raymond).
Despite having the top seed on the western side of the bracket, the Comets would have probably the toughest road of any team to get to and win the state title. Projecting that far ahead is a little tough of course, but they would likely have to beat Adna, Morton/White Pass, Napavine and either Colfax or Waitsburg/Prescott. What you have there is the number 1, 2, 4, 5 and 6 ranked teams in the state (Naselle continues to be ranked 3rd). Now of course rankings don't really tell the whole story (look at what they did to Valley, South Bend and Raymond), but it does give some idea as to the level of opponents that may lie ahead. (And yes, I already have my bracket all the way filled out...even though there is two weeks left in the season, but I digress).
Pigskin Pick'em
The hits just keep on coming, 2-0 again last week, 12-1 this year
W- Naselle @ North Beach
Ahh, more passing practice...Comets lock up league title.
W- Ilwaco @ Castle Rock
I know this is going out on a limb a little bit, but I think Ilwaco has a really good shot at pulling this off — as long as they don't give up the big play, and don't turn the ball over. This one should be close...I hope.
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